恒立液压（601100）：3Q26 EBIT +25% YoY largely in-line; Precision industries to beat full-year guidance

恒立液压(601100)

Hengli’s 3Q26 EBIT growth of 25% YoY reflected a slight acceleration from the22% growth in 2Q26. Affected by the reduction of other gains, net profit in 3Q26grew 9% YoY to RMB717mn. The results are broadly in line with ourexpectation. In the post-results call, management revealed that (1) precisionindustries segment (ball screws & linear guideways) achieved RMB250mnrevenue in 3Q26, which will likely exceed previous guidance for the full year(~RMB400mn). The segment is expected to turn profitable in 2027E; (2) Mexicoproduction base is expected to achieve RMB500mn revenue in 2027E; (3)Regarding US AD/CVD on foreign hydraulic cylinders, Hengli’s Mexicoproduction base currently satisfies 60-70% of US customers’ demand. Theproportion will increase to 100% in 2027E. Hengli continues to believe that suchduties will increase the cost of competitors as well, and therefore see the impactas neutral to slightly positive. We maintain our positive stance on Hengli withunchanged TP of RMB132 (based on 42x 2027E P/E). Our target multiple isbased on 1SD above the historical average to reflect both the upcycle ofhydraulic business and the growth potential of precision industry business.

Key highlights in 3Q26 results: Revenue in 3Q26 grew 30% YoY toRMB3.4bn. Gross margin contracted 2ppts YoY to 40.2%. Selling &distribution expense ratio slightly increased 0.2ppts YoY to 2.5%, due to (1)74% YoY increase in exhibition expense and the distribution of one-offbonus for sales team. Administrative expense ratio expanded 0.3ppts YoYto 6.4%, due to (1) increase in depreciation, (2) increase in workforce, and(3) increase in tax consultant expense. In 9M26, net profit increased 3%YoY to RMB2.15bn, accounting for 65% of our full-year forecast (run rate in9M25: 76%).

Risk factors: (1) Slowdown of demand for hydraulic components; (2)slower-than-expected new business development.