JPM-JPM Natural Gas Reservoir NatGas Pipeline Scrapes Still Stubbornly High,but Could Take a LEG Down-20250815

JPM View: In this week’s Reservoir, we take a closer look at the recent increasein natural gas production according to Wood Mackenzie’s daily pipeline scrapes.In August MTD, L48 production has averaged 107.9 Bcf/d, including reaching anew all-time daily high of 108.5 Bcf/d earlier this month. L48 production has beenabove 108 Bcf/d for 8 of the 14 days in August. August production is up ~1.4 Bcf/dvs. July, which averaged 106.6 Bcf/d for the month and is the highest month onrecord. The increase in August vs. July has been driven by Louisiana (+708 MMcf/d), the Permian (+537 MMcf/d), and Appalachia (+144 MMcf/d). Based on ourconversations with Wood Mackenzie, we believe the LA data may be overstatedby 500-700 MMcf/d in August and could be subject to a downward revision in thenear-term. The issue is driven by the startup of the Louisiana Energy Gateway(LEG) pipeline as gas that has been rerouted from east TX may be causing a dataissue.

•L48 gas production flat WoW. L48 gas production was up 0.1% this week to108.0 Bcf/d vs. 107.9 Bcf/d last week, as growth from Appalachia (+157MMcf/d) and Other U.S. (+104 MMcf/d) was offset by declines from the GoA(-154 MMcf/d) and Louisiana (-121 MMcf/d). Overall, L48 gas production hasaveraged 107.9 Bcf/d over August MTD, which is up 1.4 Bcf/d vs. the Julyaverage of 106.6 Bcf/d, driven by growth from Louisiana (+708 MMcf/d), thePermian (+537 MMcf/d), and Appalachia (+144 MMcf/d).

•Natural gas demand up 5% YoY. U.S. natural gas consumption was up 5%on a YoY basis this week, driven largely by higher industrial demand (+2.2Bcf/d) and power burn (+1.3 Bcf/d). On a WoW basis, total demand increasedto 89.2 Bcf/d (vs. last week at 83.3 Bcf/d), driven by higher power burn (+4.0Bcf/d).