JPM-Natural Gas Weekly Storage Recap For week ended July11, 2025：41 Bcf-20250715

•With the inclusion of Independence Day in the reference week, we view greaterpotential noise surrounding this Thursday’s report relative to a non-holidayreference week. We have built in a 0.5 Bcf/day holiday impact in the industrialsector to our supply-demand model versus our baseline. Industrial sector flowdata do not indicate any notable step down in demand on the holiday, but giventhe lower relative coverage of facilities inside Texas and Louisiana, wherethere is a large concentration of gas-intensive manufacturing, we havenonetheless included a holiday drop in our balances. Were it not for the holidayimpact, our supply-demand model would compute a 37 Bcf net injection.

•EIA 930 data show a small week-over-week uptick in gas-fired generation onthe order of ~0.1 Bcf/day. Wind generation continued its seasonal creep downsupporting gas burns on the order of ~0.4 Bcf/day versus the prior week. Thatdownward shift represents a much smaller week-over-week drop than that inplace for the week ended July 4. Solar generation appears to have had amarginal week-over-week rebound while coal generation has been relativelysteady for the past three reference weeks. With the growing share of renewablegeneration, the trajectory of peak cooling season storage builds will hingeheavily on the interplay between renewable and natural gas generation.

•Our regional flow model (see Table 2) indicates a 44 Bcf build though our finalestimate remains our supply-demand model’s forecast 41 Bcf injection.