JPM-European Natural Gas $750bn of energy purchases in the huge EU-US deal are too optimistic-20250729

The United States and the European Union have successfully negotiated a tradeagreement concerning tariffs. The deal includes a 15% tariff on the majority of EUexports to the US, alongside a commitment of $600 billion in investments, anunspecified amount of US military equipment purchases and, notably, $750 billionin energy purchases. While specific details of the agreement remain limited,European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has indicated that the $750billion in energy purchases will be spread over three years, aligning with theremainder of President Trump's term. This equates to approximately $250 billionannually (A “huge” EU-US deal (two sets of T&Cs apply), Fuzesi, 27 Jul 2025).

Achieving the targeted energy purchase figures appears challenging. In 2023 and2024, total US energy exports, including oil, gas, and coal, amounted toapproximately $350 billion, with crude oil and oil products comprising 85% of thisvalue. The EU's contribution to total US energy exports was around $80 billion,which is about three times less than the proposed $250 billion annual target(Figures 1 and 2).