UBS-Midstream Hydrocarbon Express Natural Gas Growth Projects-20251107

TRP Capital Backlog

In its 3Q25 earnings, TRP announced three new nat gas pipeline projects approved for $0.7Bn with a weighted average build multiple of 5.9x and are backed by 20-year take-or-pay or cost-of-service contracts. The projects include the US$0.3Bn TCO Connector and the $US0.1Bn Midwest Connector projects on its Columbia Gas and extended system. Combined, these projects provide ~0.6 Bcf/d of capacity. ISD are 2030 and 2031, respectively. TRP highlighted that its assets supply 20% of Mexico's gas-to-power plants and will be 80% of the new public tender natural gas generation projects entering service of the next five years. Capital backlog for nat gas pipeline projects stands at ~C$17Bn, which includes $6Bn of late-stage projects pending approval.Additionally, over the past 12 months, TRP has sanctioned ~C$5.1Bn in new growth projects across North America nat gas and power portfolio at an average build multiple of ~6x (click here).

ET Data Center Projects

ET provided updates on various nat gas projects during its 3Q25 call. The company views the Hugh Brinson pipeline to be one of the more profitable assets ET has built, being the "main artery" connecting the Permian Basin to the Southeast, East, West Texas, Gulf Coast, etc. The pipeline will come online YE26 and is in close proximity to where data centers are being constructed. Additionally, ET announced 1) an agreement with Oracle to supply nat gas to three US data centers (~900MMcf/d of nat gas), two of which are in Texas, 2) a 20-year agreement to provide 250,000 MMBtu/d of firm transportation service to fuel facilities in Northern Louisiana with Entergy Louisiana beginning in February 2028, and 3) a long-term agreement with CloudBurst to supply nat gas for a data center in Central Texas. ET also announced plans to construct Mustang Draw II, a new 250MMcf/d processing plant with expected ISD of 4Q26. Moreover, the company is currently commissioning the third of eight 10 MW nat gas-fired electric generation facilities in West Texas (click here).