JPM-JPM Natural Gas and NGL Reservoir Global LNG Analyzer-20251110

JPM View: In this week’s Reservoir, we review the fundamental outlook for the global LNG market, which was covered in depth by JPM’s Global Commodities Research and Australian Energy & Utilities teams in their latest Global LNG Analyzer note (see here). The global LNG market is entering a multi-year phase of unprecedented supply growth, with ~400 Bcm/year of new projects currently under construction and set to come online between 2025 and 2035. The U.S. is at the forefront of the export project pipeline, accounting for 51% of total capacity under construction, followed by Qatar (17%), Canada/Mexico (10%), and the UAE (3%). The team noted that these projects are considered highly likely to reach operational status. Meanwhile, demand growth in established LNG markets such as China, Japan, South Korea, and Europe is slowing. Specifically, China’s LNG imports are expected to peak at 120 Bcm in 2032, driven by developments in the Russia-China energy partnership and ongoing policy support for domestic production. Japan and South Korea are increasingly turning to nuclear and renewable energy to meet rising power demand, which is reducing their reliance on imported LNG. As a result, LNG imports in these markets are projected to grow by only 15 Bcm between 2025 and 2035. In Europe, LNG imports are projected to increase by 26 Bcm over the next decade, supporting a modest industrial recovery and offsetting declines in domestic production.