JPM-Natural Gas Weekly Storage Recap Early-view weekending September 12,2025：88 Bcf-20250911

•Today’s EIA print was in line with our estimate of a build in the low 70s Bcfand was marginally above market expectations for a build in the high 60s Bcf.While this may seem counterintuitive, given that the reported injection waslooser than market expectations, we believe today’s print corroborates bothlower production readings and continued strength in gas-fired power burn.This is further supported by the fact that the reference week included ourestimated 1 Bcf/day impact from the Labor Day holiday. In our view, lowerreadings in the Northeast are likely to persist through the shoulder season, witha seasonal pickup in production expected as winter resumes.

•Our preliminary storage injection estimate for the week ending September 12is 88 Bcf. This includes a 0.3 Bcf/day week-over-week reduction in production.Power burn has decreased to ~39 Bcf/day, representing a week-over-weekreduction of nearly 3.5 Bcf/day. While both solar and coal generation werelower compared to the previous week, the increase in wind generation morethan offset those losses, thereby reclaiming some market share from naturalgas. Assuming production remains flat at the average level observed this weekfor the remainder of the month, our models indicate that end-Septemberinventories will track to 3.65 Tcf.