JPM-European Natural Gas：Demand Storage Tracker Norwegian maintenance in full swing-20250916

Weekly demand rises, but MTD trend still below our forecast

•For the week of September 8-14, total natural gas demand in NWE averaged248 Mcm/day, 9% higher week-over-week and 7% lower than the same periodlast year. Both residential and non-residential demand increased week-over-week as temperatures started to get colder and lower solar output pushed gas-for-power demand higher.

•However, month-to-date demand for September stands at 238 Mcm/day, or 34Mcm/day below our forecast, lagging our estimates in both the residential andnon-residential sectors.

•Year-to-date natural gas demand is averaging 386 Mcm/day, compared to 381Mcm/day during the same period last year. The increase was driven byheightened demand in February due to colder weather and less favorablerenewable conditions, which led to increased natural gas burn in the powersector (+64% y/y).

•On a country level, all countries in our perimeter experienced higher demandweek-over-week, led by Belgium and Germany where demand increased by13% and 11%, respectively.