JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Aug. 25)：Positive Outlook for Corn Productivity...-20250825

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update onthe soybean and corn harvest.

•Corn. Corn production for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso remainsunchanged at 55 million tons (+15% y/y). The commercialization rate for the2024/25 season reached 62% in July (+11.9 p.p. m/m), while for the 2025/26harvest it is at 11.4% (+4.6 p.p. m/m), still below the previous five-year averageby 8.4 p.p., driven by price increases. The price of corn in Mato Grossoaccelerated by 0.3% last week, reaching R$43.0 per sack, driven by industrialdemand and the appreciation of the dollar, despite higher internal supply. Cornharvesting was concluded last week and prolonged rainfall benefited cropdevelopment, leading to positive yields, and current productivity projectionssuggest better outcomes than previous seasons.

•Soybean. Soybean production for 2024/25 is at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y)while expectations for the 2025/26 crop are at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y). Asof July, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 89% (+6.8 p.p. m/m),while for the 2025/26 season, commercialization reached 22.5% (+5.0 p.p. m/m). Soybean meal prices were up 2.6% last week, driven by higher demandwhile the US soybean meal production was revised downwards. The exportpremium at the Port of Santos remains close to its all-time high levels, eventhough it was down 14% w/w. This is driven by the high demand for Braziliansoybeans, especially from China.

•Spot Freight Truck Rates. As of August 22 nd , the Sorriso-Santos truck freightrate was -0.7% w/w and +2.9% y/y, while the Sorriso-Miritituba rate was+2.4% w/w and +26.5% y/y.

•J.P. Morgan view on Rumo (RAIL3, OW). Since the company reported2Q25 earnings, the stock has underperformed IBOV by c.15 p.p. due toconcerns about the company’s pricing power going forward. We acknowledgethe short- to mid-term challenges and that the stock currently lacks immediatecatalysts. As a result, we are anticipating yield growth below inflation from2025 onwards. Nevertheless, the stock remains overly discounted, trading at a5.4x EV/EBITDA 12-month forward, which is approximately a 40% discountcompared to historical levels - click here for our latest update.