BofA-Gold Fields 1H25 Results：Eyes on 1Q26 Windfall decision-20250822

1H25 broadly in line (pre-guided), stable performance

GFI reported 1H25 normalised earnings of $998.2m, +181% yoy, -3% vs. guidance mid-point, -6% vs BofAe and -14% vs Visible Alpha (VA) consensus. Gold production of1,136koz was +4% vs BofAe, 0% vs VA Consensus. The result was largely pre-releasedthrough the 4th August trading update, which implied a successful Salares Norte ramp-up through the challenging winter months. GFI is now targeting a FID on Windfall by1Q26 = key catalyst for GFI, in our view, given the project’s importance for group life-of-mine extension. Outlook: FY25 guidance was unchanged, with production 2.25-2.45Moz,AISC $1,500-1,650. Model changes: We update our estimates to reflect 1H25, whichhas a -1/0% impact on our FY25/26 HEPS. We reiterate Buy our rating andZAR547/US$30 PO based on 1.4x P/NPV. We believe GFI’s sector-leading gold priceleverage, production growth, and improving execution are underappreciated by themarket. GFI screens attractively on 8%/14% FY25/26 FCF yield.

Salares Norte on track to hit FY26 targets

Salares Norte’s additional heat tracing allowed production to continue despite similarweather as in the 2024 winter. FY25 guidance was reiterated at 325-375koz, AISC $975-1,125/oz, commercial levels of production in 3Q25, and steady-state levels in 4Q2025.We estimate that the full-year guide implies that GFI needs to hit c. 100koz in Q3 and130koz in Q4 in order to enter FY26 at a sufficient exit rate to meet FY26 guidance of550-580koz. This implies c. 30-40% QoQ growth for the rest of 2025 – reasonable, inour view, given Q1-2 growth of 46%.