Wells Fargo-Chemicals WF Ag Flash：August WASDE Points to Record Com Crop in 2025 26-20250813

Our Call

We view changes in the 2025/26 August WASDE report as incrementally negativefor corn prices, as higher corn acres and yield per acre result in higher production andinventories. However, we do see this driving higher fert and crop protection demand.

Initial Thoughts

August WASDE Report Points to a Record Corn Crop: This month's 2025/26 WASDEreport saw a 27.5% higher corn stocks estimate (+62.2% Y/Y) vs. July, with stocks-to-use rising to ~13.3% (from 11.3% in prior month). The move was driven by increasesin production estimates (+6.6% vs. prior est.) and yields per acre (+4.3% vs. prior est.),partially offset by higher consumption and exports. We see the data as bearish for UScorn prices, with the average farm price revised down to $3.90/bu from $4.20.