Jefferies-Green Plains Inc. Q2 EPS Miss.Corn Oil, Ethanol Exports,Inputs To Drive Positive 2H25 EBITDA.-20250813

Q2 EPS of a loss of 1.09 was well below consensus and our estimate, butadj EBITDA of $16.4m was above both consensus ($4m), and our estimate($12m). Run-rate cost savings likely exceed the original $50m target, and newCCS project remains on track for commercial production by Q4. Restrictionson feedstocks, increased ethanol exports, and elevated corn yields likely bolsterEBITDA through year-end. A new CEO is expected to be announced in the nearfuture.

Q2 Review: Q2 EPS of -$1.09 was $0.83 below our forecast: -$0.03 in Ethanol Production EBIT; -$0.10 in Agribusiness & Energy Services; -$0.12 in Corporate; -$0.06 in Interest Expense & Income;-$0.19 in Taxes; -$0.44 in Minority Interests; +$0.04 Share Count; ~$0.01 related to rounding. Plantutilization was 99% in Q2 vs 100% in Q1. The Q2 consolidated crush margin improved to $26.3mfrom -$14.7m in Q1.