BofA-Global Agribusiness WASDE Aug 25：sharp upwards US corn revision-20250812

The USDA printed the market-moving Aug WASDE report

Today, the USDA released their August estimates. The main surprise came from the UScorn yield revision for 25/26 (+7.8bu/acre, the largest in the past 25 seasons), and asignificant cut in the US soy harvested area estimate (-2.4mn acres). Global corn endingstocks were increased 3.8%MoM to 282.5mn tons and came in 1.7% ahead ofconsensus, while world soy ending stocks were revised down on lower production in theUS (-1%MoM and -1.7%YoY), The USDA reduced corn farm-gate prices to US$3.90/bufrom US$4.20/bu but kept soy prices unchanged at US$10.10/bu (vs. CBOT spot pricesof US$10.3). Following the report, Dec/25 Chicago corn prices dropped 3.2% today,while the soy market rallied 2.1% (Nov/25).

Record revision to US corn yields…

The key change was for US corn yields, which were increased from 181bu/acres to 188.8bu/acre. As a result, US ending stocks came in 27.5% higher MoM, at 2.1 bn bu (+10.4%vs consensus average). Industry experts were already foreseeing increases in US cornyields, as Crop Condition and Soil Moisture figures were above historical average, butreleased numbers beat estimates, with corn production increasing 6.6%MoM and+12.6%YoY. The US demand estimates were also revised higher, although less thanproduction, by 545mn bushels to 16bn bushels. A 7.5%MoM increase in the exportestimates reflects expectations of US competitiveness and low prices, which now fell toUS$3.9/bu from US$4.2/bu last month.