MS-Hindustan Petroleum Strong Beat；Crude Sourcing Shift Priced In-20250807

HPCL is our preferred fuel retailer as it's a levered play from rising oil supply andbenefits of hardware upgrades. It commissioned its LNG import terminal in F1Q26,adding another 5mntpa to India's LNG import infrastructure. Hardware upgrades,lowered capex intensity and increased oil supply are not yet priced into OMCs, anddomestic refining pure plays should re-rate as fuel cracks improve. Further, recentpolicy signals from China, mandating health checks on >20yr old petrochemicalassets and phasing out >30yr capacity by 2030 could prove to be re-rating catalystsfor regional refiners as the Golden Age of refining gets extended. See China Anti-Involution and Refining's Golden Age & India Energy: India's Oil Trade in Perspective.