JPM-USDA World Ag Supply Demand Estimates(WASDE)-20250812

Today, the USDA updated its global supply and demand estimates for 2025/26 and2024/25. In the US, 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated at 2.117B bu of corn (vs.consensus 1.918B bu and 1.305B bu in 2024/25), 290MM bu of soybeans (vs.consensus 358MM bu and 330MM bu in 2024/25), and 869MM bu of wheat (vs.consensus 882MM bu and 851MM bu in 2024/25). US 2025/26 stocks-to-use(STU) are projected at 13.3% for corn (vs. prior 10.8% and 8.5% in 2024/25), 6.7%for soybeans (vs. prior 7.1% and 7.5% in 2024/25), and 42.8% for wheat (vs. prior44.3% and 43.3% in 2024/25). We view today’s report as negative for USfarmers to the extent higher new crop ending stocks for corn could weigh onprices. Meanwhile, US soybean and wheat ending stocks came in belowconsensus, and farm gate price projection is lowered for US new crop corn andwheat.

•US new crop 2025/26: corn ending stocks well above consensus; soybeansbelow. 2025/26 US corn supply is estimated at 18.072B bu (vs. prior 17.070Bbu) on a yield of 188.8bu/acre (vs. prior 181.0bu/acre), 88.7MM harvestedacres (vs. prior 86.8MM), and 35MM bu fewer beginning stocks; demand israised to 15.955B bu (vs. prior 15.410B bu) on 95MM bu higher food, seed &industrial use, 250MM bu higher feed & residual use, and 200MM bu higherexports. Corn ending stocks of 2.117B bu (vs. prior 1.660B bu) are well aboveconsensus 1.918B bu. US soybean supply is estimated at 4.642B bu (vs. prior4.705B bu) on a yield of 53.6bu/acre (vs. prior 52.5bu/acre), 80.1MMharvested acres (vs. prior 82.5MM), and 20MM bu fewer beginning stocks;demand is lowered to 4.352B bu (vs. prior 4.395B bu) on 40MM bu lowerexports and 3MM bu lower residual use. Soybean ending stocks of 290MM bu(vs. prior 310MM bu) are well below consensus 358MM bu. For US wheat,supply is estimated at 2.898B bu (vs. prior 2.899B bu) on a yield of 52.7bu/acre(vs. prior 52.6bu/acre) and 36.6MM harvested acres (unchanged); demand israised to 2.029B bu (vs. prior 2.009B bu) on 25MM bu higher exports, partiallyoffset by 5MM bu lower food use. Wheat ending stocks of 869MM bu (vs. prior890MM bu) are modestly below consensus 882MM bu.