JPM-Delta-One Flows Positioning Strong inflows...-20250811

In this publication, we analyze flow and positioning metrics for global futures andUS-listed ETFs across asset classes.

Weekly Highlights

• Futures Flows: Last week we saw 3z buying in Nasdaq futures and large netbuying (>1.5z) in FTSE 100, Nikkei, Hang Seng, TAIEX, Silver and Ethereum,but large net selling (<-1.5z) in VIX, Australia 10y, SONIA and Gold futures.

• CTAs: Based on key momentum signals, CTAs likely remain broadly longglobal equities, long US rates, and generally short EMEA rates (ex Italy).Additionally, CTAs likely remain short Energy and Ags, long Precious Metals,and have mixed exposures in Base Metals and global FX vs USD.

• CFTC Positioning: Asset managers sold MSCI EM and bought UST 2y andUltra Bonds w/w. Leveraged Funds increased shorts in Russell 2000, EAFE,and US 2y/Ultra bonds with ~2z w/w selling, and bought EM futures. ManagedMoney sold across most of the Commodity complex, with >1z selling inCopper, Silver, Wheat and Soybeans, but they bought Gold futures.

• ETF Flows: Last week we saw near-average inflows into Equities ($16Bn, 0z)and Currency/Multi-asset ($0.7Bn, -0.2z) funds, and strong inflows into FixedIncome ($14.3Bn, 2.2z) and Commodities ($2.3Bn, 1.4z).

• Regionally, US equities saw near-average inflows ($12.2Bn, 0z); InternationalDM saw strong inflows ($4.4Bn, 0.9z) driven by global and EAFE funds, eventhough flows in Japan and Europe were relatively weak, and EM saw moderateoutflows (-0.7z) led by India (-2.3z).

• In equity styles, we saw near-average flows across categories, with inflows acrossall factors apart from Low Vol. Call/put writing, Thematic and VIX ETFsrecorded their weakest flows in over a month, though close to 1Y average levels.

• In equity sectors, Comm. Services recorded +6z flows on record inflows toXLC ($2.6Bn), but the driver is currently unclear. The inflow coincided with theParamount/Skydance merger closing, so the XLC inflow may have been due toa custom in-kind basket rebalance (which would reverse this week) or investorflow related to the merger. However, the ~15% increase in XLC sharesoutstanding on Tue-Thu last week appears outsized relative to the fund’s <0.5%allocation to PSKY. Additionally, we saw a rotation from Financials to Staplesand Utilities last week.

• In Bond ETFs, we saw strong inflows into Corporate Bonds ($5.8Bn, 2.3z), ledby $4.5Bn inflows into IG. Additionally, Money Market, Short-term USTs, andAggregate bond funds saw strong inflows.