JPM-Commodity Market Positioning Flows Gold tariff risks drive up commodity market inflows-20250811

The estimated value ofglobal commodity market open interest ticked up by0.7% WOW (-$52 billion WOW) to $1.49] trillion, still at the lower end ofthe 2025 range but up 10% YTD as of08 Aug(Table 1, Figure 3). Contract-based inflows returned to 10-year average levels through the week to $14.6billion wOW, primarilyinto gold markets ($12.4 billion WOW) as US tariff*isks drove the largest weekly inflow in two months. In yet another eventfulweek for commodity and macro markets, the US-China tariff truce isapproaching an end on 12 August and is widely expected to be rollediorward by President Trump a further 90-days. Meanwhile, PresidentFrump is scheduled to hold a summit on a ceasefire in Ukraine withPresident Putin in Alaska on Friday 15th,OurUS economists have broughtorward their Fed call, and now see a -25bp cut at the September meeting.and continue to look for three like-sized cuts at the subsequent threemeetings before pausing indefinitely (New Fed governor, new Fed call.Feroli, 7 August).