BofA-Global Fund Manager Survey On AI, Gold Crypto-20250810

BofA August Global Fund Manager Survey

Bottom Line: not a clear and obvious inflection point in our survey but most bullishFMS since Feb'25, with probability of hard landing lowest since Jan'25, cash as % AUMat historically low 3.9%, equity allocations on rise but not at extreme levels.

On Macro & Policy: 68% predict soft landing, 22% no landing, just 5% positioned for ahard landing; expectations for global growth remain tepid net -41%; rate cut optimismhighest since Dec'24; asked if next Fed Chair resorts to QE/YCC to ease US debt burden,54% said yes, 36% no; final US tariff rate on RoW expected to be 15% vs 14% in July).

On Risks, Crowds & AI: tail risk of trade war/recession falling (29%), tail risks ofinflation/no Fed cuts (27%), disorderly bond yields (20%), AI bubble (14%) rising; mostcrowded trade “long Magnificent 7” once again (45%), but majority 52% see no AIbubble (41% do) and 55% say AI already boosting productivity.