BofA-Basic Materials-Asia-Pacific(H) 2Q25 preview：copper aluminum gold earnings strong vs...-20250714

Aluminum/copper/gold earnings remain resilient

Metals remain strong, with 2Q25 copper price seen at US$9,538/t, -2%yoy/+2%qoq;gold price at US$3,289/oz, +41%yoy/+15%qoq; aluminum margin at RMB3.7k/t,+16%yoy/+55%qoq and alumina price at RMB3,053/t, -16%yoy/-20%qoq. Zijin issued apositive profit alert for 1H25 with NPAT at RMB23.2bn, +54% yoy, implying 2Q25 NPATat RMB13bn, +48% yoy/+27% qoq, slightly beating our expectation. We expect CMOCbeat at RMB4.8bn, +42%yoy/+21%QoQ; JXC beat at RMB2bn, +3%yoy/flattish qoq. Wesee strong YoY growth for gold names – Shandong Gold in-line at RMB1.6bn,+140%yoy/ +60% QoQ; Zhaojin in-line at RMB0.9bn, +163%yoy/ +33% QoQ; Chalcoin-line at RMB3.1bn, -35%yoy/-12%QoQ. Chalco guided a dividend hike to 40%+ thisyear with interim dividends/buybacks approved and limited write-downs in 2Q.