Barclays-European Metals Mining China Signals-June data shows slight slowdown...-20250715

Our monthly brief on commodity demand and supply data inChina.

Key takeaways

• Property continues to be weak with floorspace starts -9.5% YoY in June (vs 18.7% YoYMay), completions -2.1% YoY in June (vs -19.2% YoY in May) and sales -6.5% YoY in June (vs.-4.6% YoY May) with 69 out of 70 cities showing declining home prices reflecting weakhomebuyer confidence.

• Infrastructure FAI growth slowed to 5.3% YoY in June (vs. 9.3% in May, YTD +8.9%)reflecting elevated bond issuance. Grid FAI continues to drive the uplift, +17% YoY June vs.25.1% in May. Meanwhile infra ex-grid moderated further to +1.4% YoY in June (vs. +4.0% inMay). Renewable capacity additions continued to grow strongly (wind capacity +23.1% inMay, solar +56.9% ahead of subsidy withdrawal in June).

• Auto output continues to grow strongly, with total passenger vehicle production +8.8%June (vs. +11.3% in May). NEVs grew by 18.8% YoY in June (vs. +31.7% in May).

• Crude steel production declined by -9.2% YoY in June-25 (vs. -6.9 YoY in May-25, -3.0%YTD), annualising at 1012mtpa, reflecting production cuts amid weaker domestic demandand seasonality of demand. Net exports rose +10.7% YTD YoY reflecting weaker anti-dumping investigations in some key export destinations and still-strong export arbitrageprofit. Pig iron production as a proxy for iron ore demand declined by 4.1% YoY inJune (-0.8% YTD YoY), less than the decline in overall crude steel production indicating cutsby EAF producers.

• Aluminium apparent demand grew +6.4% YoY 3MMA to May reflecting China movinginto a marginal net export position amid higher production. Aluminium production grew3.4% YoY in June (+2.8% MoM), annualising at 46.4mtpa per NBS data, higher than with theproduction cap, although it remains below on a YTD basis at 44.8mt.