UBS-Iron Ore Coal Jun-Q Dividends – Who is set to surprise？-20250714

Jun-25 dividends: Anglo consensus EPS & DPS look too high

We set out below our EPS and DPS forecasts for the upcoming Jun-25 results vs VisibleAlpha consensus. In total we expect BHP, RIO, Anglo and Glencore to announce returnsof ~US$7bn to shareholders with the Jun-25 results, below the distribution in Jun-24 of~US$8bn. In terms of dividends, we expect BHP to pay out ~US$2.6bn (-32% y/y) ofdividends for the Jun-half (50% payout), RIO $2.7bn (-7% y/y) (50% payout for Jun-half), and Anglo $0.2bn (-60% y/y) (50% payout in total with 40% of underlyingearnings boosted by special dividend relating to discontinued earnings); we expect GLENto pay out $0.6bn or $0.05/sh in line with 1H25 (in addition to the $1bn buybackannounced in Jul-25). We note our forecasts for BHP is broadly in line with consensus,RIO & GLEN are above, while Anglo is below (due to weak earnings and accountingtreatment of discontinued operations).