JPM-Rio Tinto Limited 2Q25 iron ore shipments miss but copper a beat；1H25 results preview-20250716

Key takeaways: 1) Iron ore shipments of ~80Mt (320Mtpa) were ~4% belowJPMe (owing to maintenance) and the achieved iron ore price for 1H of $82.5/t was~$1/t miss; however, production was in line. 2) Mined copper production of 229ktbeat our estimates by 11%, driven by strong performance at OT/Kennecott; 2025production guided towards the upper end of the 780-850kt range with unit costsexpected at the lower end of the 130-150c range. 3) Aluminium and TiO2 werebroadly in line, with 2025 bauxite production guided towards the upper end of the57-59Mt range. Importantly, Simandou is now officially guided to deliver firstshipments in Nov ’25 (project ahead of schedule). RIO reports earnings on 30 July,where we expect 1H EBITDA and NPAT of $11.6bn and $4.96bn, respectively, anda 50% EPS payout, delivering US$1.53ps dividend. The stock remains OW-rated.

•Iron ore shipments a slight miss, copper production expected at the upperend of range, and unit costs lower end. Iron ore production of 83.7Mt wasbroadly in-line with JPMe; however, shipments of ~80Mt (320Mtpa rate)missed our estimate by 4%, with port maintenance in 1Q postponed to 2Q, dueto cyclone impacts. 2025 shipments remain guided towards the lower end of the323-338Mt range. Achieved iron ore price for 1H25 of $82.5/t was ~$1/t belowJPMe. Mined copper production of 229kt beat our forecast by 11%, driven bystronger performance at OT and Kennecott, while Escondida production wasweaker against our numbers due to lower grades. RIO now expects 2025 minedcopper production to be at the upper end of the 780-850kt guidance range, withunit costs expected to be at the lower end of the 130-150c range. Performanceacross other divisions was mixed. Aluminum production of 842kt came in 2%below JPMe (ongoing Kitimate power supply issues) and TiO2 production of269kt was also a 2% miss, with RIO expecting 2025 production to be towardsthe bottom end of the 1-1.2Mt range, reflecting market demand. Bauxiteproduction of 15.6Mt was a 4% beat vs JPMe and the highest quarter ofproduction on record (Amrun above nameplate capacity). Bauxite productionis guided to be towards the upper end of the 57-59Mt range. Elsewhere,Simandou’s first shipments have been accelerated to November 2025, with0.5-1Mt expected in 2025, in-line with the most recent BaoSteel guidance.