JPM-Rio Tinto Limited 2Q25 First Take：Iron ore shipments a slight miss-20250716

Key takeaways: 1) Iron ore shipments of ~80Mt (320Mtpa rate) were a 4% missvs JPMe, while production of 83.7Mt was broadly in-line with our forecasts. 2025shipments are still expected to be at the lower end of guidance (323-338Mt) dueto cyclone impacts in 1Q. The achieved 1H iron ore price of $82.5/t was ~$1/tbelow our forecasts; 2) Mined copper production of 229kt beat our forecast by11%, due to strong performance at OT and Kennecott. 2025 mined copperproduction is expected at the upper end of guidance (780-850kt), and unit costs areexpected at the lower end, 3) Aluminium (842kt) and TiO2 (269kt) productionwere 2% below JPMe. Bauxite production of 15.6Mt was a 4% beat vs JPMe andthe highest quarter of production on record with Amrun running above nameplatecapacity. 2025 bauxite production is guided towards the upper end of the 57-59Mtrange. RIO has flagged a $0.6bn working cap build. Overall, we view the quarterlyas solid, and expect consensus earnings to move higher on copper production andunit cost and bauxite production, albeit aluminium tariffs could be an offset asanalysts wash this through. RIO is Overweight rated.