JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore 百分之1, Spodumene 百分之1.4-20250717

2Q25 iron ore shipments miss but copper a beat; 1H25 results preview

Key takeaways: 1) Iron ore shipments of ~80Mt (320Mtpa) were ~4% below JPMe (owingto maintenance) and the achieved iron ore price for 1H of $82.5/t was ~$1/t miss; however,production was in line. 2) Mined copper production of 229kt beat our estimates by 11%,driven by strong performance at OT/Kennecott; 2025 production guided towards the upperend of the 780-850kt range with unit costs expected at the lower end of the 130-150c range.3) Aluminium and TiO2 were broadly in line, with 2025 bauxite production guided towardsthe upper end of the 57-59Mt range. Importantly, Simandou is now officially guided to deliverfirst shipments in Nov ’25 (project ahead of schedule). RIO reports earnings on 30 July, wherewe expect 1H EBITDA and NPAT of $11.6bn and $4.96bn, respectively, and a 50% EPSpayout, delivering US$1.53ps dividend. The stock remains OW-rated.