JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore -百分之0.3, Zinc -百分之1.6-20250714

Global BEV sales up 28% YTD in June

Key takeaways from the June EV sales data: (1) Global BEV sales (China+EU+US) wereup 9% MoM in June and up 28% YTD with the BEV penetration rates moving 2ppt higherto 22%. (2) China BEV sales were up 37% YTD, driven by a 1ppt MoM uptick in BEVpenetration to 32% and a 5% increase in total passenger vehicle sales. (3) US EV sales werebroadly flat YTD (-5% MoM), with a 5% decline in total passenger vehicle sales offsettinga 1ppt increase in the BEV penetration rate to 8%. (4) EU-10 BEV sales in June were up 22%YTD (+27% MoM) driven by a 14% increase in total passenger vehicle sales and a 1pptincrease in BEV penetration rates which sit at 19% (vs 1-year average of 17%). Our lithiumS&D model continues to screen with a surplus over the coming years. Following our recentcommodity review (link) we have downgraded our spodumene and lithium chemicals pricesby ~15% for 2026 to $688/t and $8.8k/t, respecitvely. On a relative basis, we prefer PLS (N)over IGO (UW) and LTR (UW) across the pure plays.