JPM-EMEA Gold Miners Q225 into the print：strong macro tailwinds but mixed micro flash points-20250715

Since reiterating our bullish view on the EMEA Gold Miners (link, 28 Apr’25), thegold price rose +2% (~28% YTD), yet EMEA Gold Miners have risen +5 to +55%,with Fresnillo outperforming peers. JPM Commodities Research remains bullishon the outlook for gold prices over 2025, and see potential for gold to reach >$4,000/oz by Q2’26. However, with Q2’25 results season starting soon, we seeheightened risk of company specific issues weighing on some of the Gold Miners’performance. For Fresnillo (OW), the strengthening of the MXN since FY’24results in April presents a potential cost headwind, which could lead Mgmt toincrease cost guidance commentary. FRES shares are +170% YTD (vs peers +40-100%), but we remain OW with a raised Dec’26 PT of £18.5/sh (prev £14.5/sh) andstill see potential for FRES to payout excess cash returns equivalent to ~8% of itsmarket cap with FY’25 results in early 2026. The stock has also re-rated to >7x spotEV/EBITDA and ~6% FCF yield vs ~4.5x & ~9% 12 months ago. In contrast, wesee potential upside to cash returns for AngloGold as it sits on a low ~0.1x ND/EBITDA & ~10% spot FCF yield. We therefore place ANG onto PositiveCatalyst Watch into its 1H’25 reporting on 1 Aug, raise our Dec’26 PTs to $63/sh& ZAR1,140/sh (prev US$58.00/sh & ZAR1,096/sh), and move AngloGold toTop Pick (previously Fresnillo). We remain OW on Hochschild as we continueto see material upside, but greater clarity around the pathway to normal operationsat Mara Rosa will be the key catalyst to drive outperformance. We cut our HOC PTto £3.70/sh (prev £4.20/sh) given the near-term production disruptions & highercosts at Mara Rosa, but still offers ~30% upside. We mark-to-market our 2025/26gold price forecasts -1%/0% to $3,300/oz & ~$3,600/oz, reflecting the latestforward curve, and thus our respective earnings forecasts.

JPM Commodities Research: the Why & How of $4,000/oz gold in 2026: JPMCommodities Research maintains a multi-year bullish outlook for gold & silverprices (link). Underpinning the team’s forecast for gold of >$4,000/oz is continuedstrong investor and central bank gold demand, averaging ~710 tonnes a quarter onnet this year. In their view, the macro environment remains ripe for both sustainedelevated levels of purchases by central banks (900 tonnes in 2025E), plus furtherexpansion in investor holdings, particularly from ETFs & China. We also considerthe downside risk in these investment demand to be low considering the currentpolitical, trade/tariff, US policy uncertainty landscape. We estimate thatHochschild & AngloGold still offer significant upside of ~35% under JPM EMEAMining’s latest Commodities & FX assumptions. In a scenario where gold pricesexceed $4,000/oz in 2026 (in line with JPM Commodities Research forecasts), weestimate fair values 60-70% above current share prices for Hochschild &AngloGold. Our earnings forecasts and Price Targets are based on 2025E/26E goldand silver price forecasts at: ~$3,300/oz and ~$3,600/oz for gold and $33/oz and$35/oz for silver.