联影医疗（688271）：Robust overseas growth offset soft domestic demand

联影医疗(688271)

United Imaging (UIH) reported 1H26 revenue of RMB7,052mn, up 17% YoY,representing 42% of our prior full-year forecast and below the ~47% historicalaverage. Overseas revenue remained strong, up 54.5% YoY while domesticrevenue grew a modest 8.5% YoY against a weak domestic market. Attributablenet profit decreased 10% YoY to RMB897mn, primarily due to FX losses. On anex-FX basis, bottom-line grew a resilient 9% YoY. Given weaker-than-expecteddomestic procurement in 1H26 and the lag between tender wins and revenuerecognition, we lower our 2026E revenue forecast by 3.7%. We also cut our2026E earnings forecast by 6.8%, reflecting the FX losses already recorded in1H26 and near-term gross margin pressure from broader domestic centralizedprocurement, although we expect FX headwinds to moderate in 2H26E. Lookingahead, we believe that the sales mix shifts to mid- to high-end products andservices should help offset centralized procurement-related margin pressure inthe long term.

Overseas growth remained strong, with improving margins. Overseasrevenue increased 54.5% YoY to RMB1,765mn, expanding the overseasrevenue mix by 6ppts to 25% (+6ppts YoY). The robust growth was primarilydriven by APAC (+148.5% YoY) and Europe (+49.4% YoY). Servicerevenue overseas increased 64% YoY, driven by a growing installed base.Notably, favorable mix toward mid- to high-end products, together withimproving localization and operating efficiency, drove overseas grossmargin up by over 3ppts YoY. The order intake remained healthy, with mixcontinuing to shift toward higher-end products. We therefore expectoverseas revenue growth to remain strong in 2H26.

Domestic share gains led by high-end products. Domestic revenue grew8.5% YoY to RMB5,287mn despite a weak market in 1H26, with UIH gaining1.7ppts of domestic market share YoY. Share gains were particularlynotable in high-end products such as 3.0T MR (+1.5ppts), PET/MR (+40ppts), DSA (+6ppts). In addition, we believe UIH’s increasing revenue mixof mid- and high-end products should help mitigate the margin pressurefrom centralized procurement over time. According to MDDi, the domesticmarket for medical imaging equipment declined 15.8% YoY in 1H26. Giventhe high base in 2H25 and the tender-to-revenue lag, we expect 2H26Edomestic revenue will inevitably face growth pressure. However, therecovery in procurement activities since July should support solid growth inlate-2H26E and 1H27E.

Maintain BUY. We lower our 2026E earnings forecasts to reflect near-termFX losses and pressure from centralized procurement, but remain positiveon UIH’s long-term growth. We therefore lower TP to RMB154.95 based ona 9-year DCF model (WACC: 8.1%, terminal growth: 4.0%).