JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Aug. 08)...-20250804

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update onthe soybean and corn harvest. We remain OW on RAIL3, trading at 5.5x EV/EBITDA12M Fwd.

•Corn. Corn production for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso was revisedupwards by 2% to 55 million tons (+15% y/y), as a result of a 2% increase intotal area, while productivity was slightly adjusted upwards. Thecommercialization rate for the 2024/25 season reached 51% in June, up 3.4 p.p.m/m, while for the 2025/26 harvest it is at 7%, +1.5 p.p. m/m. As of August,IMEA updated estimates to a 13% increase in corn supply for the 24/25 season,driven by record production in MT, with demand expected to rise by 10%,mainly due to higher export projections. Final inventories are expected at 1.4million tons, marking it a record harvest in production, demand, and inventory.

•Soybean. Soybean production for 2024/25 is at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y)while expectations for the 2025/26 crop are at 47.2 million tons (-7% y/y). Asof June, commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached 82%, +5.9 p.p. m/m,driven by a reduction in inventory levels as the corn harvest accelerates,coupled with an increase in grain prices of 1.4% m/m. For the 2025/26 season,commercialization reached 17.5%, +3.3 p.p. m/m, and 2.7 p.p. below last year.MT soybean prices were up 2% w/w driven by the attractive port premium butfutures decelerated by 0.7% as a result of the expected record soybean harvestin the US and the lower demand from China for US grains.