宏桥控股（002379）：High earnings sensitivity to aluminium price, high dividend payout; initiate with BUY

宏桥控股(002379)

Our latest industry analysis suggests that the global aluminium supply deficit willwiden in 2026E and will remain in place in 2027E (see our sector note publishedtoday). We believe Hongqiao Holdings, which carries the majority of operatingassets of China Hongqiao (1378 HK, BUY), will benefit from the elevatedaluminium price. We like Hongqiao Holdings’ high earnings sensitivity (~3.3%for 1% change in aluminium price) and high potential dividend payout ratio (75%in our model assumption). Initiate with BUY with TP of RMB29, based on 13.2x2026E P/E, equivalent to 20% premium to our target multiple (11x) for ChinaHongqiao. Our premium is in line with the current A/H premium of Chalco (2600HK/601600 CH, NR).

Comparison with China Hongqiao. After the completion of backdoorlisting in Dec 2025, China Hongqiao currently owns 89% interest inHongqiao Holdings. Hongqiao Holdings differs from China Hongqiao inseveral key aspects: (1) It has no equity interest in bauxite business; (2) Itsalumina capacity is 2mt less than China Hongqiao as the Indonesia aluminais not included; (3) It does not own captive power plants.

Key assumptions. For the duplicated business lines, our key operatingassumptions are the same as that for China Hongqiao. For 2026E, weforecast 15% YoY increase in aluminium price and 13% YoY decline inalumina price. For 2027E, we forecast aluminium / alumina price to onlyslightly drop 3%/5% YoY.

More sensitive to aluminium price. We estimate every 1% increase inaluminium price will boost Hongqiao Holdings’ 2026E earnings by ~3.3%(other factors being constant). This is more sensitive than China Hongqiao’s2.3%, based on our calculation.

High dividend payout ratio to support China Hongqiao. ChinaHongqiao’s dividend payout ratio was >66% in 2025. Assuming that ChinaHongqiao is to maintain such ratio going forward, Hongqiao Holdings willhave to maintain a high payout ratio.

Key risks: (1) unexpected removal of capacity cap in China; (2) faster-thanexpected overseas capacity ramp-up for the industry as a whole; (3)slowdown of the global economy; (4) sharp increases in costs of input suchas bauxite and coal.