HSBC-Hindalco Buy：Earnings upside potential on spot LME INR；multiples upside on tightness in aluminium-20260109
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摘要原文摘录While we are among the highest on the street, at spotLME/INR we see c20% upside risk to FY27-28e EPS
机构观点归属HSBC，研报雷达仅作摘要整理与机构观点聚合。以下为研报摘要原文摘录，内容以原始报告为准。
研报摘要
While we are among the highest on the street, at spotLME/INR we see c20% upside risk to FY27-28e EPS
As visibility for tightness in aluminium increases, we seeupside potential for valuation multiples
Retain Buy rating with revised TP of INR1,060 (from INR1,040);HNDL remains our preferred pick
Large consensus earnings upgrade potential: While our earnings estimates areamong the highest on the street, at spot LME/INR (USD3,090/t / INR90) v/s HSBCe(USD2,775/t / INR87.5), FY27/28e earnings would be 22% and 20% higher,respectively. Given that US scrap price increases have lagged LME aluminium priceincreases, we see higher LME as a positive for Novelis’ profitability and see upsiderisks to our FY27 Novelis EBITDA/t forecast (USD502/t).
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