JPM-China Tanker Shipping Venezuelas crude pivot：ripple effects for VLCC rates-20260112

VLCC TCE rates have experienced significant volatility since mid-December,falling sharply (TD3C from US$121K/day on 17 th Dec 2025 to US$29k/day on 2 ndJan 2026) as China and India reverted to greater use of the shadow fleet alongsidenormal year-end seasonality. Rates have since rebounded rapidly (9 th Jan 2026:US$78k/day) following recent developments involving Venezuela, in particularthe US announcement that it will take delivery of 30–50 million barrels ofpreviously sanctioned Venezuelan crude and move them to the United States forsale. In the near term, we view this as supportive for tanker markets, as US-bookedliftings create trade inefficiencies and incremental demand for compliant tonnageby pulling vessels off normal trading patterns. The longer-term implications areless clear and will depend on how other OPEC members respond on bothproduction levels and trade-route allocation over the long run, especially as the USappears increasingly determined to rebuild Venezuelan production capacity andchannel more Venezuelan crude toward the US while potentially restricting flowsto other major buyers such as China (the biggest buyer of Venezuelan oil).

Why Venezuela matters for tanker shipping: Venezuela currently producesonly around 1% of global crude oil supply, but holds approximately 17% ofglobal proven oil reserves, making it strategically important despite its limitednear-term output. For tanker markets, Venezuela matters less because ofabsolute volumes and more because of how its crude is traded. Long-termchanges in Venezuelan exports can materially affect tonne-miles, effectivefleet supply, and trading inefficiencies, which together dominate VLCCearnings outcomes.