DB-Precious Blog Gold,silver face index selling,crude oilto benefit(Corrected)-20260108

Gold and silver are amongst the commodities which will likely be negativelyaffected by BCOM index rebalancing during the month of January, inaddition to aluminium. On the other hand, cocoa, crude oil, natural gas andgas oil will likely be positively affected.

This year's rebalancing window will run from 9 January to 15 January.

We include charts comparing the rebalancing impact for all commoditiesscaling by open interest in the first liquid contract, and by 30-day averagedaily volume. Although in Figure 5 and Figure 7 we scale against averagedaily volume, note that the rebalancing will take place over 5 business days.

The impact of 1.4 million troy oz of gold selling may be worth 1.5-1.8% onthe gold price using an ETF sensitivity, depending on lookback windowsand whether one uses weekly or monthly changes (with weekly changesshowing the higher sensitivity).

However, the record of previous years' rebalancing events is uneven, with2025 standing out as one year when a reduction in the gold weightingcoincided with an upward move in the gold price over the rebalancingwindow.

The well signaled nature of the rebalancing may mean that a meaningfulportion of the flow may effectively be done in advance. From peak to trough,gold and silver have already made intraday ranges that are within theballpark of price impact estimates.