JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Mar. 17)...-20250317

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update onthe soybean and corn harvest. We maintain our OW on RAIL3, trading at 6.3x EV/EBITDA 2025e.

Soybean. The production estimate for 2024/25 remains unchanged at 49.6million tons (+27% y/y). The commercialization of the 2024/25 crop reached55% in February, up 6 p.p. m/m, which is 8.6 p.p. above the previous seasonbut still behind the last five years’ average by 7.4 p.p. For the 2025/26 harvest,commercialization reached 4.9%, up 2.3 p.p. m/m and it is above the previousseason by 2.5 p.p. In February, the soybean crushing reached record volumesat 1.1 million tons (+1% y/y), driven by higher external demand – as areference, soybean meal exports were up 3.3% y/y last month.

Corn. The production estimate for the 2024/25 season in Mato Grosso remainsunchanged at 46.9 million tons (-0.5% y/y). The commercialization rate of the2024/25 season reached 37.6% in February, +6.9 p.p. m/m as the plantingperiod is nearly concluded, despite the 3% reduction in prices. For the 2025/26crop, commercialization is at an early stage phase at 0.5% (0.1 p.p. behind lastyear). USDA expects 1.7 billion tons for the global corn supply (down 0.1% vs.the previous estimate and -1.2% y/y) while demand is expected at 1.4 billiontons (nearly in line with the previous estimate and +0.2% y/y).