JPM-Rumo Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker(Jan.12)...-20260112

The Mato Grosso Agribusiness Institute (IMEA) has published its weekly update onthe soybean and corn harvest. Following a period of restriction, we recently movedRumo to a Neutral rating – more details here. RAIL3 is currently trading at 5.7x EV/EBITDA 2026e.

Soybeans. Soybean production expectations for the 2025/26 crop remain at47.2 million tons (-7% y/y), following 2024/25 at 50.9 million tons (+30% y/y).The planted area is projected to increase to 13 million hectares (+2% y/y), butadverse weather has led to an expected 9% y/y decline in yields. As ofDecember, commercialization of the 2025/26 harvest stands at 44% (+5.7 p.p.m/m), supported by favorable harvesting conditions across the state. Theaverage price for the harvest was R$108.4/sc (-2% m/m). Soybean harvestinghas reached 2% of the total area (+1.3 p.p. y/y, 0.9 p.p. ahead of the last fiveyears), though the pace will likely depend on rainfall levels. For next week,rainfall is expected at 5-25 mm, which could limit harvesting progress.

Corn. For the 2025/26 season, production estimates in Mato Grosso are at 52million tons (-7% y/y), primarily due to a 7% y/y reduction in productivity,although the cultivated area is expected to increase by 2%, due to concerns onhigher production costs. The commercialization rate for the upcoming seasonstands at 29%, an increase of 4.0 p.p m/m, supported by higher corn prices,though still 5.6 p.p below the historical average. In the coming months, cornprices are expected to be influenced by the progress of planting. In December2025, Mato Grosso exported 3.7 million tons of corn (+45% y/y). For the 24/25crop year, exports totaled 20.4 million tons (-5.2% y/y), impacted by strongercompetition from U.S. and Argentine corn and robust Chinese demand forsoybeans. Egypt, Iran, and Vietnam accounted for 45% of total exports.