MS-Southern Copper Corp. 2Q25 EBITDA In-Line；Cash from Ops. Miss-20250730

2Q25 Results: Adjusted EBITDA of US$1,793m (-1% Y/Y and +2% Q/Q) came 1%above the Visible Alpha consensus of US$1,770m but 1% shy of our US$1,820mestimate. The miss compared to our model was mainly driven by lower revenues,despite lower COGS. Normalized EPS of US$1.20 was 3% above the VA consensusof US$1.17 and 2% above our estimate of US$1.18; relative to our number, the beatwas on the back of higher equity income and lower taxes (effective tax rate of 37%vs. 38% MSe), despite a miss at the operating level and higher net financialexpenses. Cash from operations of US$977m missed the VA consensus of $1,111mand our US$1,068m estimate on higher working capital needs.

Key Highlights: i) Copper shipments of 224kt were 7% lower than the VA consensusof 241kt and our 240kt forecast; ii) Copper production of 239kt was just below theVA consensus and our 241kt estimate; iii) Copper cash costs before by-products of$2.11/lb (-2% Y/Y but +3% Q/Q), was in-line with the consensus of $2.11/lb but belowour $2.14 forecast; iv) Copper cash costs after by-products of $0.63/lb (-17% Y/Y and-18% Q/Q), was well below the consensus of $0.77/lb and our $0.74/lb estimate.

Earnings conference call: July 30, 2025 at 11:00 AM ET. Link here.