JPM-Sandfire Resources 4Q25 First Take：FY25 EBITDAin-line with JPMe net debt a beat-20250729

Key takeaways: 1) Group underlying EBITDA of $528m was broadly in-line withour $546m (BBG consensus at $532m); Net debt of $123m was below our $158mand below BBG consensus of $178m. 2) Group copper production of 29.2kt wasbroadly in-line with JPMe, with MATSA copper production (14.3kt) 4% below andMotheo production (14.9kt) in-line with JPMe. 3) Unit cost outcomes at Motheoand MATSA were lower than JPMe. 4) FY26 group copper production guidanceof 108kt was 4% higher vs JPMe (slightly below at Matsa and above at Motheo).Cost guidance is yet to be provided, but Motheo costs are expected to be $1.55/lb(+10% v FY25) and are above our $1.45/lb due to higher portion of waste strippingbeing expensed. Overall, we view the result as solid. We are Neutral rated on SFR.

•Key positives. Group underlying EBITDA of $528m was broadly in-line withour $546m. Net debt of $123m was 22% below our $158m. Group copperproduction of 29.2kt was broadly in-line with JPMe. Unit cost outcomes atMotheo & MATSA were below JPMe.

•Key negatives. MATSA copper production of 14.3kt was 4% below JPMe.Group lead production of 1.8kt was a miss vs our 2.6kt.

•Outlook and projects. FY26 group copper production guidance of 108kt was4% higher vs JPMe (slightly below on Matsa and above at Motheo). Costguidance is yet to be provided, but Motheo costs are expected to be $1.55/lb,above our $1.45/lb.