BofA-European Metals Mining Weekly Strategists：US refined copper supply. Results：FRES, NOK, BHP, S32, VAL-20250728

Metals Strategists: Eyes on US refined copper supply

CME prices have rallied after President Trump's 50% duty announcement, but thecontract for now only captures a mark-up of around 25%. This is driven by a confluenceof factors: (1) Tariffs will kick in from 1 August, so the incentive for market participantsto pay up for the duties is limited at present. (2) Mirroring steel and aluminium duties,Section 232 copper tariffs may include a clause that non-US manufacturers are subjectto tariffs on the value of their copper content, such a backdrop would indicate USproducers are currently at a disadvantage. 3) The US has built around 600kt of copperstock in anticipation of the tariffs and that material is an overhang for now. (See ourreport: Global Metals Weekly).