BofA-Australian Metals Mining Weekly Strategists：US refined copper supply. Plus ILU, LYC...-20250727

Metal Strategists: Economics of US refined copper supply

From our Metals Analyst, Michael Widmer. CME prices have rallied after PresidentTrump's 50% duty announcement, but the contract for now only captures a mark-up ofaround 25%. This is driven by a confluence of factors: (1) Tariffs will kick in from 1August, so the incentive for market participants to pay up for the duties is limited atpresent. (2) Mirroring steel and aluminium duties, Section 232 copper tariffs may includea clause that non-US manufacturers are subject to tariffs on the value of their coppercontent, such a backdrop would indicate US producers are currently at a disadvantage.(3) The US has built around 600kt of copper stock in anticipation of the tariffs and thatmaterial is an overhang for now. (See report: Global Metals Weekly)