BofA-South32 Ltd Strong Q4 production. Copper aluminium up.FY26 guide largely unchanged.-20250724

Q4 production: Copper and aluminium drive guidance beat

FY Q4 production largely inline vs BofAe and Visible Alpha (VA) consensus. Aluminium+4% vs. consensus; alumina -2% vs. consensus; manganese +21% vs. consensus;Lead/zinc/silver +12%/-6%/+6% vs. consensus; copper +2% vs. consensus. Keytakeaways: 1) FY25 Guidance unchanged. S32 sees FY25 unit cost for mostcommodities in-line with FY25 cost guide. 2) FY26 production guidance largelyunchanged for most commodities. 3) Cannington mine plan under review, updateexpected with FY25 financial results. 4) Manganese exports resumed post weatherimpacts; normalization expected next quarter. Model: We update our model forproduction and company guided financial adjustments, making minor changes. MaintainBuy. PO now A$3.70/sh (ZAR 45; GBp 190) still based on 1x our DCF-derived NPV.

FY26 guidance: Eyes on Mozal & Cannington

Eyes on Mozal, as guidance for next year remains under review given uncertainty aroundelectricity supply. Cannington mine plan also being reviewed given increasingunderground complexity, update expected with FY25 results. FY26 guide otherwiselargely unchanged, while grades expected to be slightly lower at Sierra Gorda. AustraliaManganese shipments expected to reach normalised rates in September 2025 quarter.