JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron ore -百分之0.9, gold -百分之1.5-20250731

1H25 EBITDA in-line, but bottom line a touch soft on higher tax; retain Overweight

Key takeaways: 1) Underlying 1H25 EBITDA of $11.5bn was in line with JPMe andconsensus; however, the translation to underlying NPAT of $4.8bn fell short of JPMe /consensus primarily due to higher tax, 2) The interim dividend of $1.48ps represented a 50%payout (expected) but fell short of market estimates due to lower NPAT, and, 3) 2025production guidance remains unchanged, copper unit cost guidance was lowered to 110-130c/lb (from 130-150c/lb), while RIO has guided to a higher effective tax rate of 33% thisyear vs 30% prior. Our 2025 earnings are down 9% after factoring in the 1H miss and highertax (EBITDA moves only 1% lower). Our NPV based PT moves down 2% to $123ps. Weretain our OW rating, with the stock trading on a P/NPV of 0.94x and 2026 EV/EBITDA of5.3x.