JPM-Brazil Iron Ore Steel Secex December Data：Iron Ore Exports Print Strong Month...-20260107

December Summary: Iron ore exports rebound strongly; flat steel importsremain elevated despite monthly decline. December iron ore exports totaled40,243kt, up 16.8% m/m and 31% y/y, closing the quarter with a 15.8% y/y increaseand a 2% q/q decline. The q/q drop was driven by declines at São Luiz (-6.9%) andother ports (-31.3%). Flat steel imports reached 244.8kt, down 25.6% m/m but up40.9% y/y and 30.1% YTD. The monthly decrease was attributed to all products,while year-over-year, uncoated products were up by 275.3%. YTD, HRC was thenegative highlight, up by 37.2%, while uncoated products increased by 3.9%. Longsteel imports increased 12.7% m/m, but fell 5.7% y/y and 4.4% YTD. Flat steelexports of 106.9kt dropped 23.1% m/m after a strong November, but rose 44.7%y/y, led by a 141.1% increase in HRC, while coated products and CRC fell sharply.Overall, we remain bearish on the steel industry, but anti-dumping discussionscontinue to gain traction across the industry, and potential implementations couldbe approved.

Iron ore exports close the quarter with a 15.8% y/y increase. December ironore exports totaled 40,243kt, representing an increase of 16.8% m/m(+5,778kt) and 31% y/y. On a quarterly basis, exports rose 15.8% y/y, despitea 2% q/q decline. The q/q decrease was primarily driven by a 6.9% drop at SãoLuiz (Vale’s main port), along with a 31.1% contraction at other ports. Thesedeclines were partially offset by growth at Goitacazes (+17.9%), Vitória(+3.7%), and Itaguaí (CSN’s main port) (+0.2%). Relative to the previous year,the quarterly increase was broad-based across most major ports, led by Itaguaí,which surged 36.4%, followed by Vitória, Goitacazes, and other ports, whichclimbed 35.7%, 18.4%, and 313.0%, respectively. São Luiz, however, saw adecrease of 5.8%.