JPM-USDA World Ag Supply Demand Estimates (WASDE) US New Corn Wheat STUs Higher, Soybean STUs Lower-20251114

Today, the USDA updated its global supply and demand estimates for 2025/26 and2024/25. In the US, 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated at 2.154B bu of corn (vs.consensus 2.168B bu and 1.532B bu in 2024/25), 290MM bu of soybeans (vs.consensus 306MM bu and 316MM bu in 2024/25), and 901MM bu of wheat (vs.consensus 869MM bu and 851MM bu in 2024/25). US 2025/26 stocks-to-use(STU) are projected at 13.3% for corn (vs. prior 13.1% and 10.1% in 2024/25),6.7% for soybeans (vs. prior 6.9% and 7.1% in 2024/25), and 43.9% for wheat (vs.prior 41.1% and 43.1% in 2024/25). We view today’s report as modestly positivefor soybean farmers as STUs moved lower from prior estimates, whilemodestly negative for corn farmers as STUs moved up. US wheat ending stockscame in above consensus, and farm gate price projections were lowered for US newwheat crop and raised for US new soybean and corn crops.

US new crop 2025/26: corn and soybean ending stocks belowconsensus. 2025/26 US corn supply is estimated at 18.309B bu (vs. prior18.165B bu) on a yield of 186.0bu/acre (vs. prior 186.7bu/acre), 90.0MMharvested acres (unchanged), and 207MM bu higher beginning stocks; demandis raised to 16.155B bu (vs. prior 16.055B bu) on 100MM bu higher exports.Corn ending stocks of 2.154B bu (vs. prior 2.110B bu) are modestly belowconsensus 2.168B bu. US soybean supply is estimated at 4.590B bu (vs. prior4.651B bu) on a yield of 53.0bu/acre (vs. prior 53.5bu/acre), 80.3MMharvested acres (unchanged), and 14MM bu lower beginning stocks; demandis lowered to 4.300B bu (vs. prior 4.351B bu) on 50MM bu lower exports.Soybean ending stocks of 290MM bu (vs. prior 300MM bu) are belowconsensus 306MM bu. For US wheat, supply is estimated at 2.955B bu (vs.prior 2.898B bu) on a yield of 53.3bu/acre (vs. prior 52.7bu/acre) and 37.2MMharvested acres (vs. prior 36.6MM); demand is unchanged at 2.054B bu. Wheatending stocks of 901MM bu (vs. prior 844MM bu) are above consensus869MM bu.