UBS-Copper LatAm production：Chile still soft in Sept-20251118

Copper production (kt/d) still soft in Sept due to Chile disruption

We track the monthly production of the copper mines in Chile & Peru as reported by thegovt agencies. In Chile, daily production in Sept remains soft at -9% y/y (Fig4 F ) with ElTeniente, Collahuasi & QB all weak; Chile production is now down -1% YTD y/y (-21kt).In Peru daily production is up +4% y/y in Sept (Fig5) with Antamina, Cerro Verde &Quellaveco all robust; Las Bambas also picked up m/m following a slowdown in Aug dueto social unrest; Peru production is up +3% YTD (+57kt). Elections: We note the 1stround of the Chilean general election concluded on 17-Nov and the 2nd round isscheduled for 14-Dec; this is expected to be broadly neutral for the mining industry witha right-wing candidate expected to win the Presidency while the Congress is set to bebalanced (note); the Peruvian general election is scheduled for Apr-26. Copperoutlook: we remain constructive on the outlook for copper into 2026 due to supplydisruption/ robust demand though flag short-term positioning is elevated (note).