MS-KGHM Polska Miedz SA 2026 guidance-copper production in line,capex lower-20251218

Production - group copper and silver guidance in line, moly weaker: Group copperproduction guidance (own concentrates) for 2026 of 527kt was in line with VisibleAlpha consensus and MSe. Meanwhile, total electrolytic copper production atKGHM Polska of 589kt was 2% above consensus (6% above MSe) and boostedcopper sales guidance, though this is a relatively lower margin business as it relieson third-party copper units (concentrate, scrap). Silver sales guidance was largely inline with consensus (4% below MSe) and should contribute materially on the backof elevated silver prices. Meanwhile, molybdenum guidance at 2.1mn lbs was themain miss vs consensus of 3.3mn mn lbs and MSe at 3.0mn mn lbs.

Opex - elevated but possible conservatism: The company has guided to 2026 unitcosts at KGHM Polska (66% of group NPV) at PLN32.8k per tonne. This is down vsthe 2025 budget of PLN35.4k per tonne though it implies a step up vs the 9M25cost run rate of PLN30.4k per tonne. We argue that cost guidance has historicallybeen conservative and actual performance has been better than budget in recentyears.