JPM-Spot Scenario Lithium and copper plays lead MtM earnings upgrades-20251218

Key takeaways from our spot price to perpetuity scenario across our coverage: 1)Post the recent run in spodumene, IGO / LTR / PLS lead the MtM upgrades, (seeour recent lithium review link), 2) With Copper reaching all time highs of ~US$5.4/lb, SFR/CSC screen with 32%/16% MtM EBITDA upgrades; S32’s downgradenarrowed to -12%. 3) With iron ore at ~$107/t, the majors all screen with >12%MtM CY26 EBITDA upgrades; RIO/FMG/BHP at 14%/13%/12%. BHP’snarrowed its distance to RIO on higher copper exposure (47% of EBITDA at spotvs RIO 25%). All the majors trade at >6% FCF yields and >~5% div yields. Ourkey picks are BHP, RIO, S32, CSC, IGO, RMS, NST