HSBC-Pandora A S(PNDORA DC) Hold：No silver lining-20251217

Organic sales growth should re-accelerate in Q4, enablingmanagement to reach its FY2025 earnings guidance

The sharply rising silver price is an incremental headwind onFY2026-27 gross margins

Maintain Hold, cut TP to DKK790 (from DKK960), mostly onthe back of our lower earnings estimates

FY2025 earnings guidance is reachable as Q4 top line should re-accelerate.Management’s FY2025 earnings guidance includes: (i) organic sales up 7-8%, of which3-4% are like-for-like (LFL), and a network expansion positive impact of 4%; and (ii) anEBIT margin of around 24%. We think this is achievable thanks to a sequentialacceleration of LFL sales that we expect in Q4 25 to growth of c+3% (vs c+2% in Q3),driven by a slight improvement in some European countries, such as Italy on initiativestaken in Q3, but also in France from a low base, and a sequential acceleration in the Restof Pandora, facing a slightly easier base, while the US should continue to normalise. Thecompany plans to change the disclosure of sales by geography in Q4 to EMEA, NorthAmerica, Latin America and Asia Pacific. We expect the group to deliver an EBIT marginof 23.9% in FY2025, implying an EBIT margin in Q4 of 33.3% (down 140bp y-o-y).