JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron Ore 百分之0.8,Copper 百分之1.2...-20251218

4Q Mid-Quarter Guide: Weaker than Expected, Though Could Prove Conservative

Nucor’s 4Q adj EPS guide of $1.65-1.75 missed pre-print consensus $2.13 by 20%drivenby weaker earnings across all three segments, in line with prior guidance (link). In additionto seasonally lighter volumes as well as five fewer shipping days, incremental commentaryincluded “margin compression” for Steel Mills, namely sheet products, and “higher unit costspartially offset by higher ASPs” for Steel Products. We note Raw Materials earningsimpacted by downtime at the company's DRI plants. Buybacks totaled $100M, in line withJPMe. Peer STLD’s mid-quarter guide missed by 26%, citing similar factors but also longer-than-expected maintenance outages (~145Kt sheet impact vs. prior guided ~85Kt). Weaker4Q earnings were expected for the space, especially considering lagged sheet indices (NUE/STLD ~80% exposure) down by as much as 8% Q/Q. Although the magnitude of the misswas worse than feared (NUE -2% vs. SPX/XME -1%/flat), investor feedback has been thatNUE’s guidance is likely conservative. Into 2026, NUE anticipates “gradual improvements”from monetary/trade policy, citing “materially higher” backlogs Y/Y. Despite the cautiouslyoptimistic tone and what should be lagged benefits from the ongoing supply-driven pricerally over the next few quarters, we’re not out of the woods yet and see muted real demandpersisting for a few more quarters.