JPM-LatAm Agri,F B Bloomberg Farm, Food Fuel Conference Feedback. Soybean...-20251214

This week, we attended Bloomberg’s Farm, Food & Fuel conference, where marketexperts provided valuable insights into the trends and perspectives of Agribusinessin Brazil. The outlook for the remainder of the 2025/26 crop season is expected tobe shaped by ongoing global trade tensions, persistently high levels of producerindebtedness, elevated input costs, and shifting climate patterns, with a mild LaNiña expected to provide some support to productivity.

Soybean supply remains comfortable, with a 29% stock-to-use ratioforecast for 2025/26. While Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans continuesto be significant, it was noted that elevated global inventories are likely cappingprice gains. This, coupled with high financing costs and restricted access tocredit, should translate into another year of pressured producer margins forBrazilian farmers, according to Biond Agro’s trading experts.Commercialization has been slow, as many producers seem to be holding backsales in anticipation of higher prices (as discussed by our colleagues from theTransportation team in their Mato Grosso Harvest Tracker report here).However, high storage costs and ongoing cash needs may force increasedselling in the short-term. On the demand side, it was noted that buyers have onlypartially covered their needs through March 2026 and will likely still berequired to purchase additional volumes given the nature of the take-or-paycontracts.