JPM-JPM Mining Daily Iron Ore 百分之1.0,Li Hydroxide 百分之1.2...-20251217

Upward demand revisions drive larger deficits; upgrade prices and move to OW on allpure-play miners

Key takeaways from our lithium S/D review: 1) Another material demand upgrade comingfrom our regional team driven by a combination of raising ESS forecasts, along withcommercial vehicles; we are now at 3.5Mt LCE in 2030 which is around the top end ofconsensus, 2) despite reinstating material supply from China / Africa / Australia, our forecastdeficits have widened over the near term; this is likely to create a prolonged incentive priceenvironment; and 3) we raise spodument to $2,000/t by 4Q26 (vs ~$1,100/t spot) andcarbonate to $18k/t (spot ~$13.5k/t). Given the strong commodity price backdrop, we seeupside to all lithium pure play stocks, raising IGO & LTR from N to OW (PLS remains OW).Our pecking order is now led by IGO, then PLS and LTR.