JPM-USDA World Ag Supply Demand Estimates(WASDE)...-20251209

Today, the USDA updated its global supply and demand estimates for 2025/26 and2024/25. In the US, 2025/26 ending stocks are estimated at 2.029B bu of corn (vs.consensus 2.146B bu and 1.532B bu in 2024/25), 290MM bu of soybeans (vs.consensus 306MM bu and 316MM bu in 2024/25), and 901MM bu of wheat (vs.consensus 894MM bu and 851MM bu in 2024/25). US 2025/26 stocks-to-use(STU) are projected at 12.5% for corn (vs. prior 13.3% and 10.1% in 2024/25),6.7% for soybeans (unchanged vs. prior, and 7.1% in 2024/25), and 43.9% forwheat (unchanged vs. prior, and 43.1% in 2024/25). We view today’s report aspositive for U.S. farmers as corn and soybean ending stocks are belowconsensus, which should be supportive of prices. US wheat ending stocks camein slightly above consensus, and farm gate price projections were unchanged formajor crops.

US new crop 2025/26: corn and soybean ending stocks belowconsensus. 2025/26 US corn supply is estimated at 18.309B bu (unchanged)on a yield of 186.0bu/acre (unchanged) and 90.0MM harvested acres(unchanged); demand is raised to 16.280B bu (vs. prior 16.155B bu) on125MM bu higher exports. Corn ending stocks of 2.029B bu (vs. prior 2.154Bbu) are below consensus 2.146B bu. US soybean supply is estimated at 4.590Bbu (unchanged) on a yield of 53.0bu/acre (unchanged) and 80.3MM harvestedacres (unchanged); demand is unchanged at 4.300B bu. Soybean ending stocksof 290MM bu (unchanged) are below consensus 306MM bu. For US wheat,supply is estimated at 2.955B bu (unchanged) on a yield of 53.3bu/acre(unchanged) and 37.2MM harvested acres (unchanged); demand is unchangedat 2.054B bu. Wheat ending stocks of 901MM bu (unchanged) are slightlyabove consensus 894MM bu.